Future of probability

B1

Grammar path · Lesson 55 of 86 · Stage B1 · Conditions and the past

In Spanish, when you guess or wonder about what is happening right now, native speakers often use the simple future instead of adding 'probablemente'. Estará en casa does not mean 'he will be at home' but 'he's probably at home'. The forms are exactly the simple future: serán las tres means 'it must be about three o'clock'. To guess about something that already happened, use habrá + past participle: habrá salido means 'he must have gone out'. The usual confusion is with the real simple future: if the sentence is about the present or sounds uncertain, it is a guess; if it has a future time marker like 'mañana', it is a real future.

Practise this lesson · 10 sentences

Form

Affirmativesujeto + verbo en futuro simple (-é, -ás, -á, -emos, -án)
Mi hermano estará en el trabajo.My brother must be at work.
Negativesujeto + no + verbo en futuro simple
Laura no tendrá tiempo hoy.Laura probably won't have time today.
Question¿palabra interrogativa + verbo en futuro simple?
¿Dónde estarán mis llaves?Where could my keys be?
Guess about the pastsujeto + habrá/habrán + participio
Los niños ya habrán cenado.The children must have already had dinner.

When to use it

Guessing about the present

Use the simple future when you are not sure but have a reason to guess what is happening or true right now.

Ana no contesta; estará en una reunión.Ana isn't answering; she must be in a meeting.
Esa casa costará unos doscientos mil dólares.That house must cost about two hundred thousand dollars.

Wondering aloud

A question in the future expresses wondering, like 'I wonder...', and does not necessarily expect an answer.

¿Qué hora será?I wonder what time it is.
¿Quién será a esta hora?Who could it be at this hour?

Guessing about what already happened

To guess about something already finished, use the future perfect: habrá + past participle.

Pedro no llegó; habrá perdido el autobús.Pedro didn't come; he must have missed the bus.
Las calles están mojadas; habrá llovido anoche.The streets are wet; it must have rained last night.

Signal words

a estas horasahorame preguntoya

Don't confuse it with

Simple future (futuro simple)

The forms are identical, so look at the context: if the sentence is about now or you are guessing (Estará cansado), it is probability; if there is a future marker like mañana (Mañana estará en Lima), it is the real simple future.

Frequently asked questions

Does estará en casa mean 'will be at home' or 'is probably at home'?

Both are possible, depending on context. When talking about the present with no future time marker, it usually means he's probably at home.

How do I guess about something in the past?

Use habrá + past participle, for example habrá salido means 'he must have gone out'.

Can I use probablemente instead of the future of probability?

Yes, probablemente está en casa is also correct. But in conversation natives very often use estará because it is shorter and natural.

Is ¿Qué hora será? asking about a future time?

No, it means 'I wonder what time it is'. It is wondering about the present.

Is the future of probability conjugated differently from the simple future?

No, the conjugation is exactly the same, including irregular verbs like tendrá, será, habrá.

More in Future and conditional

Simple future (futuro simple)A2Conditional (condicional simple)B1Future perfectB2Conditional perfectB2Guessing about the past: habrá sido, habría sidoC1
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